Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Debra Mayhew Taking into account social

Taking into account social

about what we owe our children

Clay comes home for Christmas vacation from his Eastern college and re-enters a landscape of limitless privilege and absolute moral entropy

Katherine Paterson

It's safer to keep her mouth shut and stay out of sight

Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction Debra Mayhew Taking into account socialThe most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an